Entries Tagged 'Real Estate Information' ↓
June 30th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. The index is a monthly home valuation report from select cities and among the private sector’s most popular home pricing models.
In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and its accompanying analysis, it appears that the housing market’s rebound is gathering momentum.
In the index’s 20 tracked cities:
• 18 of 20 improved from March to April 2010
• Versus April 2009, home prices are up nearly 4 percent
• The two “down” cities from April — Miami and New York — are off just 0.5% and 1.0% annually, respectively
Furthermore, as another sign of strength, San Diego, a city in which homeowners have lost a lot of equity since 2007, has now shown 12 straight months of home price improvement.
However, the Case-Shiller Index must be kept in context. It’s far from perfect.
For one, the index reports on a 60-day delay; it’s only now showing data from the end of April, when the federal homebuyer tax credit was expiring. Home sales have been weak since then it’s been reported.
And second, the Case-Shiller Index is limited to just 20 cities nationwide. Therefore, the index doesn’t consider every home sale in every American city — it only considers a select few. Many more U.S. homes are excluded from the Case-Shiller Index than are included.
But, despite its flaws, the Case-Shiller Index remains important with respect to economic analysis. Much like the government’s Home Price Index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader trends in housing that shape government and monetary policy.
June 3rd, 2010 — Real Estate Information
The Pending Home Sales Index shot higher in April as low mortgage rates and a soon-to-expire federal tax credit spurred home buying across the county.
A “pending home sale” is a home that’s under contract to sell but not yet closed.
Region-by-region, April’s pending home sales varied versus March’s data:
• Northeast Region: +29.5%
• Midwest Region : +4.1%
• South Region : -0.6% (after a +15.9% posting in March)
• West Region : +7.5%
On an annual basis, the Pending Home Sales Index is higher by 22 percent.
April marks the third straight month that pending home sales are up and today’s buyers should take note. This is because, according to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.
In other words, May and June’s existing home sales data should be similarly strong, causing the real estate market to gently shift in favor of sellers. In fact, already, we’re seeing home resales touch multi-year highs while new home supplies fall to multi-year lows.
All of it tends to push home prices higher while simultaneously reducing buyer negotiation leverage. That, coupled with the high probability of higher mortgage rates ahead, means that finding “deals” will get tougher for the average home buyer.
In looking at the housing market data, it appears that the best month in which to have bought a home this year was February. The next best time may be right now.
Talk to your loan officer if you’re planning to buy a home this year. It may be sensible to move up your time frame a few months.
June 1st, 2010 — Real Estate Information
The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the housing market as we head into the summer months.
It’s no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years.
At the current sales pace, the nation’s complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month’s time. That’s more than double the pace of a year ago.
Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.
It’s a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.
But before we declare the housing market “repaired in full”, we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.
The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit’s April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.
The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions. Low rates don’t sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.
And, lastly, March and April’s new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders. As compared to February 2010, April’s average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent. That’s a sharp drop in a short period of time.
For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It’s no wonder builder confidence is soaring.
May 25th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
Sales of existing homes rose in April, buoyed by an expiring home buyer tax credit and exceptionally low mortgage rates.
As compared to March, April’s Existing Home Sales rose by 410,000 units nationwide — the second straight month of large gains. An “existing home” is a home resold by a prior owner (i.e. not new construction).
It’s a solid report for housing overall, with rising sales suggesting that the real estate market’s recovery is ongoing. However, the data presented a mixed message.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, although the number of homes sold ticked higher in April, so did the supply of existing homes for sale, too.
Sellers are now listing homes faster than buyers can buy them.
After adding another 0.3 months of supply in April, resale home supply is nearly two full months larger than at November 2009’s low-point. This put downward pressure on home prices.
Furthermore, because 49% of April’s buyers were first-time buyers and the tax credit has since ended, we can expect that sellers will continue to outweigh buyers in the months ahead.
It presents an interesting opportunity for June’s home buyers. Mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels of the year — despite expert predictions to the contrary — and homes remain affordable.
Plus, in a lot of markets, home values have started to creep higher.
There are good values and good rates but neither should last long. For the next few weeks, real estate may be in its 2010 sweet spot.
If you were thinking of moving in September of this year or later, consider moving up your timeframe
May 19th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
Single-family Housing Starts rose by 55,000 last month, suggesting ample housing stock from which buyers can choose this summer.
The report is a slightly larger read than what economists had expected.
Furthermore, for the first time since June 2009, Housing Starts appear to have broken away from its half-million unit plateau. 593,000 new homes were started in April.
Ordinarily, both Wall Street and Main Street would celebrate a strong housing sector report like this, but the Department of Commerce’s press release also held two cautionary notes.
The first point of caution is a mathematical one. Although single-family starts increased by 10.2 percent, the survey had a Margin of Error of 10.7 percent. This means that Housing Starts may have fallen by 0.5 percent and the report is statistically worthless.
The second point of caution is tied to Building Permits, a complementary data point in the same Department of Commerce report. In April, Building Permits fell by almost 11 percent with a tiny Margin of Error of less than 2%. This tells us that builders are pulling back — a sign of low housing market confidence
According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Housing Starts, therefore, should ease though June and July.
Home prices are based on housing’s supply and demand. For the next few months, supply should elevate, helping prices remain suppressed, after which, supply should dwindle.
The best time to buy a home, therefore, may be now. As the summer months come to close, we may find that buyers vastly outweigh sellers.
May 5th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
The Pending Home Sales Index moved higher in March as home sales were spurred by low mortgage rates and an expiring tax credit.
A “pending home” is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.
March marks the second straight month in which the Pending Home Sales Index improved after a series of weak showings this past winter.
March showed a 5 percent increase over the month, but the Pending Home Sales Index is still off its October 2009’s peak. October 2009 is a comparable period to March 2010 in that it marked the 1-month deadline before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date. The credit was later extended to April 2010, of course.
That said, March’s surge in sales is being felt on the street.
Home buyers no doubt noticed the change in activity. Around the country, anecdotally, multiple offer situations were more common last month and “right-priced” homes tended to go under contract quickly.
The increase in March’s Pending Home Sales is diminishing the nation’s home supply which, in turn, should cause prices to rise in most markets.
Today’s buyers should consider making an offer sooner rather than later. Looking at the data, it appears the best time to have found a “deal” on a home may have been in February.
April 27th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
The sales of newly-built homes soared in March, even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the mainstream media is telling us.
Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:
- Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
- New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
- Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)
None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading. The biggest reason why March’s New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it — February — was the worst in New Home Sales history.
In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history.
A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date.
Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.
Home buyers – first-timers and repeats alike — went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program. The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.
Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.
The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low. Along with stronger home demand, this should push home prices higher throughout the coming months.
It’s no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.
April 23rd, 2010 — Real Estate Information
Existing Home Sales rose in March, as expected. U.S. home buyers closed on 7 percent more homes as compared to February.
Furthermore, versus March 2009 — a month many people equate to the low point of the U.S. economy — sales volume was up 16 percent.
“Existing home sale” is the technical term for a home resale; a home previously inhabited by a person. It’s the opposite of a “new home sale” which is a sale of a newly-constructed home.
Existing Homes Data is tracked by the National Association of Realtors® and a closer look at the March data reveals some other interesting notes:
- Year-over-year sales are higher for the 9th straight month
- Real estate investors represented 19 percent of all homes purchased
- First-time home buyers account for 44 percent of all buyers
Also worth noting is that the supply of available homes is down on a broader basis. At the current rate of sales, the existing home inventory will be exhausted in 8 months.
Despite banks releasing foreclosures and REO into the market, that’s still one half-month less from February.
When supplies drops, home prices tend to rise. It suggests an underlying strength in housing that should support home prices through the next few months — especially as the home buyer tax credit finishes working its way through the system.
April 20th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
After a strong March showing and a surprise upward-revision for February, Housing Starts are, once again, trending better.
It’s yet another signal that the housing market is stabilized.
A Housing Start is a new home on which construction has started and, over the last 6 months, home builders are averaging one half-million starts per month.
This marks the highest 6-month average since 2008 and a reading one-fifth percent better from 12 months ago. Revisions to prior data have all been higher, too.
Even more interesting, though, is that the number of newly-issued building permits is exploding. Permits were up more than 5 percent last month and have climbed back to the levels of late-2008.
Housing permits are an important data point in housing because permits are precursors to actual housing starts. According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.
Therefore, because March’s housing permits increased, we should expect Housing Starts to continue to rise into the early months of summer.
This, too, reflects well on housing because the federal home buyer tax credit won’t be in existence this summer. The simple fact the homes are being built now shows that housing is likely to expand even after the tax credit expires.
Non-military members must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010 in order to claim up to $8,000 in federal tax credits.
April 15th, 2010 — Real Estate Information
Foreclosure filings rose around 20 percent nationwide in March versus February, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, and for the 13th straight month, total filings topped 300,000.
In addition, bank repossessions reached an all-time, quarterly record. Through the first three months of 2010, banks reclaimed more than 257,000 homes.
Nonetheless, 4 states dominated foreclosure activity nationwide.
California, Florida, Arizona and Georgia accounted for more than half of all bank repossessions. It’s a disproportionate distribution of foreclosures. Together, the 4 states represent just 23 percent of the overall U.S. population.
The RealtyTrac report revealed some other interesting statistics, too.
- Foreclosure activity was up in 40 out of 50 states last month
- Bank repossessions rose 9 percent versus the same quarter last year
- For the 13th straight quarter, Nevada topped the state foreclosure rate
Regardless of where you’re buying, foreclosures and REO are making a profound impact on pricing and product. Distressed homes are 35 percent of the overall resale market.
There’s excellent value in foreclosures out there if you know where to look, but keep these points in mind:
- Buying bank-owned homes can take 120 days to close or more. Be flexible.
- Foreclosures aren’t always listed for sale publicly. Some inventory is privately-held.
- Bank-owned homes are often sold “as is”. There may be defects that render the homes mortgage-ineligible.
The REO market can be different from the traditional “existing home” market. Therefore, if you have an interest in buying REO, be sure to talk with an experienced real estate agent first.
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